The Greater Houston Partnership has published its initial estimates of the impact of Harvey on the Houston economy and they are lower than initially feared.
The main points are
- In terms of 120+ entities represented on the Board of the Partnership, a quarter said that less than 6% of their employees were affected, half said that 6-10% were impacted, and a quarter said that over 15% of their employees were impacted.
- According to the Texas Dept of Public Safety, 72,000 single family homes in the Houston metro area were damaged or destroyed (5% of Houston’s stock).
- Only $6.5-$9.5 billion of the $25-$37 billion in residential damages will be covered by insurance.
- About 300,000 vehicles with a value of $2.4 billion were damaged by Harvey.
- FEMA has approved $202 million in disaster relief to residents in the Houston metro and the Small Business Administration has approved $104 million in small business loans.
- September job losses in the Houston-Beaumont area are forecast to be between 42,000 and 74,000. By November, employment should exceed pre-Harvey levels.
- At the peak, about 25% of US refinery capacity was shut down, it’s now less than 10%.
- Construction contractors have complained of skilled labor shortages for some time, so
the pace of rebuilding may be slower than hoped for.
UPDATE 9/16 : Apartment Data Services have surveyed 80% of the area complexes. Only 2% were damaged. That’s much lower, even in absolute terms, than from Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Since Harvey average rents have risen by $12 (1.25%) to $966 a month. Those figures are before rental concessions. Prior to Harvey, many tenants were offered 3 months’ free rent. Those concessions have disappeared since Harvey.
Moody’s Analytics now estimates that Harvey’s total economic impact is $97 billion ($87 billion property damage and $10 billion in reduced output). This compares to Katrina which cost $175 billion ($144 billion property, $31 billion in reduced output).