Tag Archives: DUCs

Permian wells drilled but not completed pass 4,000 for the first time

The number of wells drilled but not completed (DUCs) in the Permian Basin rose past 4,000 for the first time, according to the latest report from The Energy Information Authority (EIA).

At the end of November, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 8,723. This was up 287 on the restated figure from the previous month. That’s six months in a row where the number has risen by at least 200.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back four years. 

Completions were 1,307, up 9 on the restated figure from the prior month (but actually down 1 on the figure originally reported last month). This is the highest since March 2015. In the Permian Basin they rose by 3 but are still below the peak achieved in March 2018.

Production in the last couple of months has been 15,000-20,000 barrels per day (bpd) higher than the EIA originally estimated. The EIA is projecting increases of 123,000 bpd for December and 134,000 bpd for January.

In the Permian basin, oil production is estimated to hit 3.8 million bpd in January 2019.  Production from new wells is forecast to be 309,000 bpd, offset by a 236,000 bpd decline from legacy wells. This results in a net increase of 73,000 bpd. The January forecast is up 1 million bpd on January 2018.

The price of WTI has fallen dramatically recently. Factors include;

  • Increasing US production.
  • OPEC announced production cut is less impressive than it initially appears as it is based on October production, which had ramped up in recent months. Remember also that there is some seasonality in oil demand and the first quarter is always the low point.
  • Russia agreed to cut 400,000 bpd (Correction : Non-OPEC agreed to cut 400,000, Russia’s share was 228,000), but in recent days has said it will do this only slowly.
  • Increased investor concerns that demand growth is softening.
  • Hedge funds closing out their long positions.

In the past reduced production has occured 4-5 months after a major decline in WTI prices. Unless WTI rebounds soon, expect US oil production to stall at the beginning of the second quarter of 2019.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Wells drilled but not completed pass 8,500

The number of wells drilled but not completed (DUCs) rose past 8,500 for the first time, according to the latest report from The Energy Information Authority (EIA). That’s up 2,000 over October 2017.

At the end of October, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 8,545. This was up 269 on the restated figure from the previous month. The average monthly increase in the past 6 months has been 226.  The DUCs in the Permian basin now stand at 3,866.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back four years. 

The DUCs are expected to show large increases over the next few months. All the oilfield pressure pumping companies have warned of weak demand in Q4 as E&P companies suffer from budget exhaustion. Activity is not expected to significantly pick up until mid January.

Completions were 1,308, up 23 on the prior month. This is the highest since March 2015. In the Permian Basin they rose by 13 but are still below the peak achieved in March 2018.

Increases in production from these basins is projected to increase after slowing in October. Production rose by 99,000 barrels a day in October. The EIA is projecting increases of 105,000 barrels a day for November and 112,000 barrels for December.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Wells drilled but not completed rise for the 22nd successive month

The number of wells drilled but not completed (DUCs) rose for the 22nd successive month, according to the latest report from The Energy Information Authority (EIA).

At the end of September, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 8,389. This was up 192 on the restated figure from the previous month. The DUCs in the Permian basin now stand at 3,722, up 194 on the previous month.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back four years. 

Completions are still slowly rising and were 1,281 in September. This is up 11 on the restated figure from last month. Completions in the Permian Basin rose slightly in September but are still below the peaked achieved in March 2018.

Increases in production from these basins is projected to slow. Production rose by 102,000 barrels a day in September. The EIA is projecting increases of 85,000 barrels a day for October and 97,000 barrels for October.

Interestingly I have seen conflicting views on what is going to happen in the Permian Basin.  Analysts from Raymond James today issued a note expecting that wells drilled but not completed in the Permian will fall in early 2019. Their logic is that the forward curve on oil is just slightly higher than today’s prices. This means there is no incentive for E&P companies to build up DUCs.

Conversely Richard & John Spears of Spears & Associates believe that, in the next 12 months, the number of DUCs in the Permian could double to 7,000 because of the lack of pipeline takeaway capacity. Currently the Permian has capacity for about 3.5 million barrels a day. New pipelines are being added that will increase the capacity to 6.0 million barrels a day. These are scheduled to be completed in late 2019. Even after the new pipelines are open, the DUCs will fall relatively slowly as they believe the oilfield service contractors will struggle to add frac crews and pressure pumping equipment.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Wells drilled not completed keep on rising

The number of wells drilled but not completed (DUC’s) rose for the 21st successive month, according to the latest report from The Energy Information Authority (EIA).

At the end of August, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 8,269. This was up 238 on the restated figure from the previous month. The DUC’s in the Permian basin now stand at 3,630. This is up 211 on the previous month and up 80% year-on-year. DUC’s in the Eagle Ford are now 1,545 and have risen 25% year-on-year.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back four years. 

Completions are still slowly rising and were 1,282 in August. Completions in the Permian Basin peaked in March 2018. The Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma shows the fastest rise in completions.

Increases in production from these basins is projected to slow. Production rose by 106,000 barrels a day in August with the EIA projecting increases of 93,000 barrels a day for September and 78,000 barrels for October.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Wells drilled but not completed climb over 8,000

The Energy Information Authority (EIA) released its latest Drilling Productivity Report that showed the number of wells drilled but not completed (DUC’s) rose for the 20th successive month.

At the end of July, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 8,033, up 165 on the restated figure from the previous month. The DUC’s in the Permian basin now stand at 3,303, up 167 on the previous month and up 80% year-on-year. DUC’s in the Eagle Ford have now risen for 13 months in a row, the other basins have been flat or declining.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back four years. 

Completions have stalled over the past 3 months at around 1,275 and show the lack of takeaway capacity from the Permian Basin is beginning to impact the numbers. Completions in the Permian have actually been flat for 5 months.

Increases in production from these basins is projected to slow. Production rose by 110,000 barrels a day in July  with the EIA projecting increases of 107,000 barrels a day for August and 93,000 barrels for September.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Wells drilled but not completed rise sharply

Allan D. Hasty

The Energy Information Authority (EIA) released its latest Drilling Productivity Report that showed the number of wells drilled but not completed (DUC’s) rose for the 19th successive month.

At the end of June, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 7,943, up 193 on the restated figure from the previous month. The DUC’s in the Permian basin now stand at 3,368, up 164 on the previous month. DUC’s in the Eagle Ford have now risen for 12 months in a row, the other basins have been flat or declining.

Interestingly in previous monthly reports of the EIA, it appeared that the rise in DUC’s was leveling off. The EIA has reduced previously reported totals by an average of 270 for each month in the past year, so the graph now shows that DUC’s are still rising at a solid pace.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back four years. 

Surprisingly completions actually fell by 1 to 1,243, though the Permian increased slightly. May’s overall completion figure was also revised down by 41 and, in fact, the EIA revised down each month since December 2017 by an average of 53 completions.

Production from these basins rose by 126,000 barrels a day in June, with the EIA projecting increases of 140,000 barrels a day for July and 143,000 barrels for August.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Wells drilled but not completed still rising slowly

Allan D. Hasty

The Energy Information Authority (EIA) released its latest Drilling Productivity Report that showed the number of wells drilled but not completed (DUC’s) rose for the 18th successive month. However the increase was the lowest since the DUC”s started rising

At the end of May, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 7,772, up 31 on the restated figure from the previous month. The DUC’s in the Permian basin now stand at 3,203. DUC’s in the Eagle Ford have now risen for 11 months in a row, the other basins have been flat or declining.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back four years. 

Completions rose by 39 to 1,285, the highest since March 2015 and are up 36% on a year ago.

Production from these basins rose by 118,000 barrels a day in May, with the EIA projecting increases of 128,000 barrels a day for June and 141,000 barrels for July.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

 

Wells drilled but not completed keep rising

The Energy Information Authority (EIA) released its latest Drilling Productivity Report that showed the number of wells drilled but not completed (DUC’s) rose for the 17th successive month. However the rate of increase appears to be slowing

At the end of April, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 7,677, up 55 on the restated figure from the previous month (but down 15 from the number published last month!).  The DUC’s in the Permian basin now stand at 3,086. DUC’s in the Eagle Ford have now risen for 10 months in a row, the other basins have been flat or declining.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back four years. 

Completions rose by 41 to 1,242, the highest since March 2015 and are up 33% on a year ago.

Production from these basins rose by 126,000 barrels a day in April, with the EIA projecting increases of 133,000 barrels a day for May and 145,000 barrels for June.

 

Permian wells drilled but not completed pass 3,000

The Energy Information Authority (EIA) released its latest Drilling Productivity Report that showed the number of wells drilled but not completed (DUC’s) rose for the 16th successive month.

At the end of March, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 7,692, up 94 on the restated figure from the previous month. The DUC’s in the Permian now stand at 3,044. The DUC’s in the other 6 basins are now 4,648 and have fallen 5 months in a row.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back two years. 

Completions rose by 47 to 1,197, the highest for 3 years.

Production from these basins rose by 93,000 barrels a day in March, with the EIA projecting increases of 118,000 barrels a day for April and 125,000 barrels for May.

 

Wells drilled but not completed still rising

The Energy Information Authority (EIA) released its latest Drilling Productivity Report that showed the number of wells drilled but not completed (DUC’s) rose for the 15th successive month.

At the end of February, the total for the 7 major onshore producing areas in the lower 48 states was 7,601, up 110 on the restated figure from the previous month. Interestingly when the report was published last month, the EIA said that the number of DUC’s was 7,609! In the Permian Basin DUC’s now stand at 2,937.

Note that, every month, the EIA restate prior months’ figures, with revisions going back two years. 

Completions rose by 36 to 1,157. Completions are rising slowly but steadily which reflects a  continuing tight supply of fracking equipment and personnel.

Production from these basins rose by 100,000 barrels a day in February, with the EIA now projecting increases of almost 105,000 barrels for March and 131,000 for April.